Articles

March 23rd, 2004

New Economy

Is it just me or does it seem that in fifteen years (perhaps less) our entire economy will be derived on advertising? The ability to interest consumers in your product is the only goal. Your product can be no more than a few web pages with banner ads. You profit by selling ads to other companies that offer only some web pages, etc. Meanwhile all the real products in the world will be produced offshore. Our entire economy will float on the mere exchange of consumer attention, the span of which can be expected to grow ever shorter. While other countries produce our cars, our houses, and our televisions, every American will sell ethereal nothingness. The real money doesn't even seem to be coming from the sales of ad space. It comes from the IPO of the "company" and the investors that gleefully believe in this "new economy" built on nothing but pixels.

Now obviously this doesn't come across as a good thing. With nothing being produced but useless information you have managed to live without for a long time, provided through the generosity of some company selling nothing but ad space, the consumer perceives the world as free. Free software, free computers, free cell phones, all floated by companies going into debt on the promise of being able to sell more ad space to other companies that profit by selling ad space. It is a house of cards that collapses the moment there are no advertisers dumb enough to believe there is no one willing to buy their free product. When that happens, the turmoil that ensues will throw the nation into a tailspin of repossessed SUV's, a sudden interest in inner-city housing, and the failure of a thousand and one WAL-Marts built in the middle of farm country that is populated by abandoned three-hundred thousand dollar houses built in empty fields.

The problem with all of this is that a lot of people believe that the good times are rolling as the US moves to a more "service-oriented" rather than "product-oriented" economy, and that they will continue to roll. This belief stems from the fact that when you don't make anything, you don't have expenses, shortages, and labor issues. Everyone can make lots of money and all the real work being done is sent to Mexico, where people living in houses without running water can build the new flat screen monitors that show consumers your latest web site with banner ads. Maybe I'm running around in circles and repeating myself, but this is a problem that can only be solved by people realizing not everything can be given away and subsidized.

I admit, I've considered going into the stock market to make money. But that's where all the IPO money that creates these companies comes from. What happens when the investors sell their stock and retire? Only a few people are dumb enough to believe a fortune in stock is a fortune in the bank. When you invest in the stock market, it's like creating money, because you think you still have it, and the company you invest in can spend it. You believe that this company is going to make money by doing what it is doing and this will in turn make your share of the company worth more. Most people choose to ignore this and stick to the abstract of buy low, sell high. Whether this company actually stands a chance in the real world is irrelevant. They have a bundle of IPO money with which to improve their web site and attract new advertisers and visitors. At least, that's the plan.